Tropical Storm Rafael to Become Hurricane and Hit Louisiana on Saturday

As Tropical Storm Rafael teeters on the brink of forming, the National Hurricane Center predicted it may become a hurricane by late on election day.
The tropical depression, situated in the Caribbean, is currently named Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, but will be officially named Tropical Storm Rafael when it hits tropical storm strength today. It’s forecast to head toward the Gulf Coast, possibly making landfall in Louisiana or Mississippi on Saturday.
The storm currently has wind speeds of 35 mph, right on the boundary of the tropical storm threshold of 39 mph. It may become a hurricane by Tuesday evening as it moves northwest past Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
“The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today and pass near Jamaica on tonight and Tuesday where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night and there is a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surge in the Cayman Islands and portions of western Cuba,” the NHC said in a forecast discussion.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands, while a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Jamaica. Hurricane watches are put into place when hurricane conditions are possible in a certain area, and are usually issued 48 hours before the first tropical storm-force winds hit.
Hurricanes have wind speeds of 74 mph or greater. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and November hurricanes are remarkably rare, with only three hurricanes having ever made landfall in the U.S. during November since 1851.
Rafael is expected to bring up to 9 inches of rain to parts of Jamaica and Cuba this week, possibly causing flooding and mudslides.
“The system will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including the island of Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible,” the NHC explained. “Heavy rainfall would then spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.”
Forecasters aren’t certain of the exact path and intensity of the storm and its possible impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast, however, and it’s unclear if it will still be a hurricane by the time it reaches Louisiana.
“The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur,” the NHC said.
This is due to the uncertainty in forecasting the movements of storms further out than a few days.
“The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center consider the structure of the storm, how favorable the conditions around it are for development, and the forecasts from a wide range of computer models in making those probabilities,” Mathew Barlow, a professor of environmental, earth and atmospheric sciences at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, told Newsweek.
“Each computer model has different strengths and weaknesses, and the competing factors for development can be complex, so the expertise and experience of the forecasters is a critically important part of combining all the available information to make the best possible forecasts.”
Rafael was initially pegged to become Tropical Storm Patty, but after a storm in the northern Atlantic reached tropical storm strength first and claimed the Patty name, this Caribbean storm bagged the official name for the 18th named storm of the year—Rafael.
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